Falklands: is there a chance for military action? Malvinas: existe la posibilidad de acciones militares?

Several newspapers have been publishing since Sunday news about the possible military actions the United Kingdom may take in case Argentina decided to invade the Falkland Islands. However, the fact is that the British government knows Argentina is not capable of doing it. We have below part of a document from the House of Commons we can easily find by searching on the web that brings a bit of light.
We’ll continue tomorrow unreaveling the thread that so far looks more discursive than real.

Varios diarios han estado publicando desde el domingo noticias sobre posible acciones militares del Reino Unido en caso que Argentina decidiera invadir las Islas Malvinas. Sin embargo, el hecho es que el gobierno britanico sabe que Argentina no es capaz de hacerlo. Tenemos debajo una parte de un  documento de la Casa de los Comunes (una de las Salas del Parlamento britanico) que podemos encontrar facilmente en la red y que acerca un poco de luz.
Continuaremos mañana desenredando la trama que hasta ahora parece mas discursiva que real.

The House of Commons
The defence of the Falkland Islands
Standard Note: Last updated: Author: Section
8 February 2012
Louisa Brooke-Holland
International Affairs and Defence Section 


4.1 Argentine assets
A summary of the Armed Forces of Argentina is available in the IISS Military Balance 2011. The Armed Forces number 73,100: this includes 38,500 in the Army; 20,000 in the Navy and 14,600 in the Air force. Its assets include:

  • 11 principal surface combatants including 5 Destroyers and 6 Frigates
  • 3 submarines
  • 121 combat capable aircraft
    Gareth Jennings, head of the air desk at IHS Jane’s, observes:
    while, numerically speaking, the Argentines would be able to field a larger number of aircraft than the UK in any future war, the important thing to remember is that Argentina has not purchased a single new combat aircraft since before the war in 1982… Essentially, it has the same air power it had back in 1982, minus the aircraft that were shot down. They didn’t fare too well against the Sea Harriers then and they’d be torn apart by the Typhoons today.39

5 Jane’s risk assessment
Jane’s Intelligence Weekly produces fortnightly security alerts. The alert covering 26 December 20011 to 8 January 2012 included the following on the Falklands
Alert Risk: Negative
Country Risk Rating: Minimal
Watch for: Increasing impatience in London concerning Argentina’s renewed sovereignty offensive over the Islands. With UK-Argentina relations now at their lowest ebb since the 1982 conflict, a decision by the MERCOSUR trade grouping to deny port access to Falklands-flagged shipping has further irked London. This comes in addition to increasing Argentine naval harassment of Falklands and Spanish vessels headed for the Uruguayan port of Montevideo. The situation has deteriorated beyond the usual levels of rhetoric, and further escalatory Argentine actions – including the proxy use of ultra-nationalist groups to undertake provocative actions over the holiday season – remain an outside possibility. Nevertheless, a return to military conflict remains remote.40 

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